In a recent release, from the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Ireland is projected to fall well short of its climate targets. Ireland’s 2030 target under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) was to deliver a 30% reduction of emissions compared to 2005 levels by 2030. However, the ESR was amended in April 2023 and Ireland must now limit its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42% by 2030.

The latest projections (March 2022) indicate that Ireland can achieve overall ESR compliance over the period 2021 to 2030 assuming full implementation of the Climate Action Plan 2021 and the use of the flexibilities available. In terms of the 2030 targets, the ESR provides two flexibilities (use of ETS allowances and credit from action undertaken in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector) to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the targets. However, Ireland’s Climate Act ambition of a 51% emissions reduction by 2030, including LULUCF (compared to 2018) is not projected to be achieved. ‘Existing’ policies and measures can deliver a 9.3% reduction in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to the 2018 level, with ‘Additional’ policies and measures, including from the 2021 Climate Action Plan, projected to deliver up to 28 per cent (3 per cent per annum) emissions reduction over the same period.

The report also provides an updated assessment of Ireland’s total projected greenhouse gas emissions out to 2040 which includes an assessment of progress towards achieving its emission reduction targets out to 2020 and 2030 set under the EU Effort Sharing Decision.

You can read more about this topic from the EPA here.

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